Estimating Work: Why It Is Not an Exact Science
Clients often ask for a single, firm number at the very start of a project. We understand why, but estimating software is closer to forecasting weather than measuring a wall -- it improves as we learn more, and we are honest with you about that.
This article explains how we estimate, why early figures carry a range, and how we keep you informed as confidence grows over the life of the project.
Why Estimates Carry Uncertainty
The unknowns are largest at the beginning, when we know the least, which is exactly when a single number is least reliable.
- Requirements are still being discovered and refined.
- Third-party systems can behave in unexpected ways.
- Real users reveal needs no one anticipated.
- Complexity often hides until we build the first version.
How We Make Estimates Useful
We treat estimates as living forecasts and keep them transparent so there are no nasty surprises.
- We give ranges early and narrow them as we learn.
- We estimate in small pieces rather than one big lump.
- We revisit forecasts each sprint and flag any drift.
| Stage | Confidence | What you get |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-discovery | Low | A broad budget range |
| After discovery | Medium | A scoped estimate and plan |
| Mid-delivery | High | A forecast based on real velocity |
If you need a hand with any of this, your Progressive Robot delivery team is ready to help. Raise a ticket from the Support area of your client portal or speak to your account manager and we will guide you through the next steps.